With the gradual promotion of winter storage market, a new round of compound fertilizer prices and policies have gradually surfaced recently. Compared with the previous stage, the winter storage price of this round of compound fertilizer has declined compared with the previous stage, but the range is limited. Especially for the balanced fertilizer series, there has been no "big rise and fall". In addition to the policies of interest calculation, buyout and explosive products, some enterprises also implement the minimum guarantee policy at this stage, It can be seen that the mainstream market has been basically finalized, and there is little possibility of continued significant adjustment, even if the urea market starts to fluctuate again recently.

After frequent shocks, the domestic urea price is under pressure, the upstream supply reduction is not obvious, and the downstream fertilizer preparation demand is not active, resulting in a relatively low market purchase and sales atmosphere. In addition, with the introduction of the policy of ensuring the supply and price stability of chemical fertilizer, the urea market is still not optimistic, but the low-end price transaction activity has increased recently. The fluctuation of urea market has hindered the progress of compound fertilizer winter storage market to a certain extent. Compared with previous years, the progress of winter storage this year has seriously lagged behind. However, with the approaching of the season, the impact of this round of urea price fluctuation on the compound fertilizer market may not be as strong as before.

First, the downstream stock is limited and the remaining gap is large. Generally speaking, at this stage, the winter storage market in some regions is in the peak delivery season, and the payment progress of dealers with large demand is nearing the end. However, so far, the winter storage advance collection policy of some compound fertilizer enterprises has just been determined this year. Before, it was mostly non pricing and interest collection, so the interest in downstream goods preparation is not great, and the overall goods preparation quantity of dealers is extremely limited; In addition, due to the occurrence of extreme weather in some areas in summer and autumn, the local fertilizer use time and planting structure have changed, which not only reduces the amount of fertilizer, but also delays the preparation progress. Therefore, in order to ensure the normal operation of subsequent arrival and sales links, the dealers' willingness to prepare goods has increased slightly in the near future.

Secondly, the upstream operating rate is low and the inventory is not much. As of the end of last week, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in China was close to 36%. Although the operating situation has improved for several consecutive weeks, it is still far lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason is that the raw material market is unstable and the downstream demand is not booming. The factories have to reduce their operations and control the inventory of finished products. In view of the remaining demand in the winter storage market and the small upstream and downstream inventory, once the subsequent demand is released, the supply link may be tight. In order to avoid the occurrence of no goods available, some enterprises have resumed Construction recently. While accumulating a certain inventory, the early order delivery is also in progress.

Finally, the price tone of winter storage is generally determined, and it is difficult to make a big move. After a long stalemate, the winter storage prices and policies of some compound fertilizer enterprises have finally become clear recently. The mainstream market is relatively stable, but there is also a downward trend. First, the raw material costs are different. Most of the raw material inventories of some enterprises are purchased in the early stage, and the prices are at a high level, especially urea. The production cost of compound fertilizer is naturally high, Therefore, the ex factory price is difficult to be very low; The second reason is the mentality of the downstream. Up to now, the main reason why the dealers are not active in preparing goods is their lack of confidence in the future market. If the price is adjusted frequently and the price shows a downward trend, the enthusiasm of the downstream will be weakened again, and appropriate price stabilization may promote the market.

In conclusion, as the season approaches, downstream demand will eventually be released. Even if the raw material market is unstable, it is expected that the temperature rise of compound fertilizer winter storage market will not be far away.