Urea prices in Shandong, Lianghe and other places have increased slightly in the past two days, At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2430-2460 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 2520 yuan. This price rise is mainly due to the increase in the market demand for compound fertilizer, and the wait-and-see mood in the early stage has eased recently. Although the construction may start or increase in the later stage, the increase in demand may make the urea price continue to rise. It can be seen that up to the middle of December, the time for the market speculation in the industry is coming, and the winter storage market is coming The market may be officially launched, but it also depends on the real continuity of demand.
Will the situation of Monoammonium turn around?

First of all, we should pay attention to the demand for monoammonium. Compound fertilizer enterprises have successively issued winter storage prices and policies in recent stages, and the prices are lower than those in the early stage. Dealers in some regions will pay for procurement or replenishment appropriately. The industry is worried about the tight supply in the future, and the delay of demand may lead to a short demand time, Similarly, compound fertilizer enterprises may have some concerns about the raw material monoammonium, but the degree is weak. It is mainly to ensure that they have raw materials in hand. The procurement quantity should be small temporarily. They mainly purchase monoammonium in batches on demand, which is mainly due to lack of confidence in monoammonium. However, the demand for raw material monoammonium in the winter storage market is there, and there will certainly be some hard demand in the future, Therefore, with the gradual recovery of the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises, the procurement of raw material monoammonium by enterprises should also be improved.

Secondly, in terms of Monoammonium supply, the overall operating rate of Monoammonium enterprises is still at a low level. Around 40%, some large factories are not fully opened. For example, the large factories in Sichuan are under operated due to the high price and tight goods of raw sulfuric acid, and the enterprises in Henan temporarily stop selling inventory or switch to other products due to unsatisfactory sales. However, the relevant notice issued by the national development and Reform Commission may make the operating rate of Monoammonium pick up, However, in the face of the current specific market of Monoammonium, the recovery of operating rate may not be reflected temporarily. Recently, the resumption of production of some small plants that have stopped production is slow, and the maintenance enterprises are preparing to resume production at the end of this month. Although the operating rate of Monoammonium is low, the overall waiting volume is small, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is gradually increasing. A few enterprises say they have expanded the warehouse and are ready for maintenance. At the end of the year, in order to return the funds, individual enterprises continue to reduce prices and absorb orders like traders.

Once again, we need to pay attention to raw materials. Sulfur and sulfuric acid show ups and downs. Recently, sulfur prices have been rising. At present, the price of granular sulfur in Changjiang port and Fangchenggang has risen to around 2300 yuan, and the prices of Puguang sulfur Wanzhou port and Dazhou plant have also risen to 1990 yuan and 1980 yuan respectively. There is a strong atmosphere of price rise in the port. Recently, the inquiry situation is good. The industry says that short-term sulfur still has the ability to act. On the contrary, the price of domestic sulfuric acid has already decreased in Hubei. The warehousing price of 98% smelting acid is between 400-550 yuan. The price of sulfuric acid in southwest and other places has decreased due to the inflow of goods from other provinces, and the warehousing price is around 800-900 yuan. The price of liquid ammonia drops. At present, the ex factory price of liquid ammonia in Hubei is around 3700-3750 yuan, and the price of phosphate rock changes little. According to rough calculation, the complete cost of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei ranges from 2500-2900 yuan. Compared with the recent monoammonium price, it can be seen that the sales price of some monoammonium may have been upside down.

Combined with the above analysis, the market of Monoammonium may continue to be weak, but it is already near the cost. If it continues to decline, the range will be small. In the later stage, we will pay attention to when the demand will improve and the guidance of national policies.