The potassium chloride Market in recent weeks is like this: it is difficult to rise, but it does not dare to rise, and it is not easy to fall with support. The temporary demand is cold and dominates the market. I have insufficient confidence. In addition, there is still poor money at the end of the year, so the price is more or less loose; However, there are also many people who are still optimistic. While they stick to the price, they will withdraw when they encounter low prices.

Why can't it rise? First, policy intervention. Whether it is the previous interview, administrative punishment, the subsequent auction of the national reserve of only 3000 yuan / ton, the domestic 60% potassium whose ex factory price has remained at 2890 yuan / ton, and the short-term small rise of 62% white potassium in the port that automatically stops after 4100 yuan / ton... All these demonstrate the power of policy regulation. Second, demand is weakening. Potassium chloride soared in June, and then only about 2.75 million tons were imported from July to November, compared with 4.32 million tons and 3.07 million tons in the same period last year and the previous year respectively. However, the port storage of potassium chloride increased from about 2.3 million tons to about 2.7 million tons.
Why can't you fall? First, just look at the present. The international spot CIF price of potassium chloride is US $600-800 / ton, and the domestic price of potassium chloride is about US $500-570 / ton, with a price

difference of US $100-200 / ton, but in the past, the price difference was only US $20-50 / ton most of the time. On the one hand, 40-50% of China's potassium chloride depends on imports, on the other hand, the international price is still stable and rising. As a result, concerns about the possible high and late signing of new large contracts linger. Secondly, channel monopoly. In recent years, the details of the negotiation and results of large import contracts have become more and more secret. Although there are trade secrets, the import of potassium chloride has been given special rights and corresponding obligations. However, at present, both international and domestic are silent about this, and many downstream can only see the first point above; Originally, it had strong control. This year, the price of potassium chloride rose sharply and made huge profits. Now there are few sources of goods and international prices, so the seller does not have the pressure of urgent sales, and even the mood of reluctant sales to rise is still there. Due to channel monopoly, the above is not urgent, the lower is empty, and the price is naturally not good to go down.

Why can't you sell it? Looking at the above factors of price reduction and price support, although it seems that the rise and fall are not certain, after all, the price of potassium chloride is at its own historical high and at a relatively high level compared with nitrogen and phosphorus. Therefore, since we can't see the direction clearly, it depends on the space, so the habit of buying up or not buying down plays its power again. Especially when the downstream market is generally not ideal, who can it be sold to? Therefore, by the end of the year, the price of potassium chloride has decreased by about 50 yuan / ton recently.
So in the face of potassium chloride, which looks a little loose after a long time, are you excited? The author said no. Because the high price is obvious to all, the inherent pressure will not be mentioned. We will mainly study whether there are flaws in the factors supporting the price. First, monopoly does not mean impeccable Unalterable (moreover, we have no real monopoly). The so-called extremes will turn against each other. The reduction of demand under excessively high prices may turn deficiencies into surpluses, which has been reflected in the domestic and even international markets. Secondly, Europe and the United States have imposed sanctions on Belarus potash fertilizer, which is the fuel for the increase in the price of potassium chloride in the world, but it may be a turning point for China. On the one hand, Belarus We are not afraid that potash fertilizer is excluded from the US dollar currency settlement system. On the other hand, if it is embargoed, Belarus, Russia and China will find ways to find new ways of transportation and will not be completely passive. If it is not embargoed in the end, Belarus should also tend more goods to us for subsequent safety.

I believe that the new contract for potassium chloride can be signed, and it may not be a high price. I also believe that the government has the ability to ensure the supply and price of chemical fertilizer for food security. Let's work together to survive this most difficult time.