As of the morning of December 23, the price of urea was still falling. In the afternoon of December 23, the industry learned that the bidding for the temporary reserve project of summer pipe fertilizer in 2022 was conducted. The temporary reserve varieties were urea, diammonium phosphate and ternary compound fertilizer. After the storage enterprises completed the reserve task as required, the central finance will give financial subsidies according to certain standards.

With the support of this policy, urea has risen again! During the period of 24-26, some domestic urea enterprises have increased by 40-60 yuan, and there is still a rising trend! The industry has paid attention to how long it can rise this time.

First of all, let's take a brief look at the key points in the bidding for Xiaguan fertilizer. The storage time is from the date of issuance of the notice to February 28, 2022, the storage time is from March 1 to May 31, 2022, and the expiration time of the storage is June 1, 2022. This means that the bid winner needs to reserve goods in time before March 1, And the average monthly reserve inventory in the target area from March 1 to May 31, 2022 shall not be less than the storage task. The most important thing is that in case of macro-control needs, the state has the right to use the temporary reserve of summer management fertilizer in 2022 in advance, and the central government will grant subsidies according to the actual reserve time. All these show the determination of the state to ensure the supply of chemical fertilizer.
This policy support, coupled with the ups and downs of urea in previous rounds, urea enterprises have a certain waiting to go. For the time being, it is not necessary to collect urea orders in advance for the seven-day holiday of the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, middlemen focus on sales, and it may be difficult to sign too many urea orders at that time. Before that, urea enterprises can appropriately tentatively raise prices. After all, there is still a little demand at present, During the previous price decline, no one took too much. Of course, during the next round of price increase, no one may take too much, that is, the industry just needs customers to take some. Moreover, over time, some agricultural light storage customers will take some in consideration of factors such as transportation time and time to purchase goods from the grass-roots level.

Secondly, the stable supply and price of chemical fertilizer has entered a new stage. Urea enterprises may have a certain waiting time and inventory. Considering the ex factory price of 2450-2500 yuan / ton, grass-roots buyers still don't get enough urea. In contrast, the grass-roots may be a little empty. With the decline of natural gas price and sufficient natural gas, the shutdown time of gas head urea enterprises is shorter than that in the same period of previous years, and the coal price further down has fallen sharply, Coal enterprises are not limited to production and rarely stop production due to carbon neutralization and other factors. Under this series of operations, during the maintenance of some gas head urea enterprises, the daily output of urea is still as high as about 130000 tons, only about 115000 tons in the same period in previous years. Considering December alone, the output of urea is about 400000 tons more than that in the same period in previous years. Considering that since the legal inspection of chemical fertilizer export on October 15, It is difficult to export. The domestic urea supply is moderate, but there may be a large part in the upstream, and there are not many goods in the hands of wholesalers and retailers. Therefore, the guarantee of supply and stable price of chemical fertilizer has entered a new stage. We need a series of means to stimulate wholesalers and retailers to take goods at a normal pace.

Thirdly, there are some rumors about liberalizing exports recently, which is also one of the means to stimulate the grass-roots level to take goods. After all, once the export is liberalized, urea will soar. Of course, the effect of this stimulus is limited. The grain price can only rise slightly in stability, and the probable grain price is still stable. Based on this, the price of chemical fertilizer can only rise slightly in stability, and the probable price of chemical fertilizer should be weak in stability. After all, there is no problem in the upstream supply of chemical fertilizer. If the middlemen and retailers do not take the goods, it also means that our supply and price stability is not very successful, which requires the rise and fall of urea price Policies to promote grass-roots access to goods.

In short, the price rise and fall of urea in recent rounds basically lasted only a short week. The next round of price rise may be more than ten days or a little longer. The reason is that we go back to the beginning of the article. The duration of taking goods in the wave of temporary reserve of summer tube fertilizer in 2022 will not be too long. It may be the recent taking of goods, and it may be the time when urea enterprises receive orders to be issued during the Spring Festival.