After new year's day, the price of urea in many places has been raised. As of this weekend, the high-end receiving price in some regions has increased by 80 yuan (ton price, the same below). Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2550-2580 yuan, and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2590 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2540-2550 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2500-2530 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2450-2460 yuan, and that of large particles is 2460-2480 yuan; The high-end ex factory quotation in Mengxi also rose to about 2320 yuan. There are two main reasons for this price rise. On the one hand, according to the international market news, Indonesia has announced a ban on coal export due to tight power supply since January 1. On the other hand, the domestic market demand has increased, the number of orders waiting to be issued by some factories has increased, and even the inventory of some factories is basically in a state of no inventory, Some downstream markets that are temporarily on the sidelines are slightly flustered and pay more attention. They want to purchase at a high price in the near future. However, from the feedback of the recent market, urea does not have the possibility of long-term rise. The main reasons are as follows:
First, the export restrictions on Indonesian coal have little impact. Since the second half of 2021, domestic coal enterprises in the main coal producing areas have been able to open up. Through the development of one quarter, the daily mining volume of domestic coal has exceeded 10 million tons by December. According to the customs data, China imported 178 million tons of coal from Indonesia from January to November 2021. Purely in terms of figures, The suspension of coal supply in Indonesia has little impact on the domestic market by reducing the average daily mining volume by 500000 tons; On the other hand, according to international sources, Indonesia also allows 25 coal enterprises to export in an appropriate amount. Based on the above two aspects, the domestic coal consumption will not be tight in the short term.
Secondly, demand remains, but supply pressure will also increase. According to statistics, after the middle of January, most domestic gas enterprises will resume production one after another. Although some enterprises may limit their production during the Winter Olympics, 14 departments recently issued documents on the Spring Festival transportation to ensure the transportation demand of key materials such as coal, natural gas and agricultural materials. It is expected that the overall degree of production restriction will not be too large. Recently, according to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, The daily physical output of urea in China is more than 140000 tons. According to the current situation, it is estimated that the daily supply of urea may exceed 150000 tons in the latter ten days. Although the demand for winter storage is high, the procurement span is relatively long, the agricultural market demand is relatively general, and the number of urea precipitated to the grass-roots level is relatively small, so the demand for urea exists, but the intensity is relatively weak, The price may fluctuate.
To sum up, after the new year's day, due to the good news from the market, it coincided with the slight demand in some regions. The price of urea began to rise after the new year's day. However, at this stage, the market phased procurement has come to an end, and even the quotation of individual factories has begun to decline. Even if the quotation of individual regions is still rising (such as northeast China), the enthusiasm of actual procurement in the market is relatively general, In addition, the resumption of production of gas head enterprises is imminent, the supply pressure will increase, and the price does not rule out the possibility of decline.