In the past two days, the urea market has been changing, and there has been a "east wind" blowing continuously in the market. The price of policy regulation, cost support or local fertilizer preparation first fell, and then rebounded slightly in some parts; In addition, on January 18, the national development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference in January, at which it was reported that in 2021, driven by the flood of global liquidity, the sharp rise in the price of international chemical fertilizer, the tight domestic energy supply, the rise in the price of raw materials and other factors, the price of chemical fertilizer rose sharply, and then under the regulation of the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, The price of chemical fertilizer has been effectively regulated... And the supply of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing this year is guaranteed. However, considering the difficulty of further sharp decline in production costs, it is expected that the price of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing may still operate at a high level. Subsequently, the mentality of domestic urea manufacturers seems to have changed. Futures urea rose, followed by some enterprises in the spot market. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the imminent resumption of production of some urea enterprises, the slowdown of procurement and other factors, it is difficult to avoid some speculation about the rise of urea price at this time.
As of today, the price of urea has risen and fallen, but the range is not large. The price of urea in Hebei, Anhui and other places has fallen slightly, while the price of urea in Shandong, Henan and other places has increased appropriately, and the overall consolidation operation has been carried out; For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan rose to about 2530-2590 yuan / ton, the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi, Shandong rose to 2610 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei fell slightly to 2580-2610 yuan / ton. Although local prices have risen, the performance of the new order is flat, and its price is also adjusted under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, so it is difficult to increase significantly.
First, the daily output of urea is as high as 147000 tons, and there is a rising trend. On the one hand, some stopped gas head urea enterprises are resuming production in succession. For example, a few urea enterprises in Southwest China have resumed production, and some urea enterprises plan to start construction near the end of the month; On the other hand, starting from the national policy of ensuring supply and price stability, in order to ensure the stable production of chemical fertilizer enterprises, there is sufficient fertilizer in spring and sufficient energy supply such as coal and natural gas. Therefore, the production load of chemical fertilizer enterprises will maintain a high level; In addition, according to the recent prediction of the national development and Reform Commission, the price of chemical fertilizer may run at a high level in spring, and the production enthusiasm of urea enterprises will be relatively high; Moreover, as the Spring Festival approaches, due to the dual pressure of transportation and inventory, some enterprises will appropriately shift the production focus from liquid ammonia to urea, which will increase the supply of urea. Overall, the production load of urea has room for improvement.
Secondly, the demand for urea looks good on the surface. However, the actual transaction situation is general. First, in the off-season of agricultural demand, the market procurement ends one after another, and an appropriate amount of supplementary orders will be made after the festival, and the urea price fluctuates at a high level, resulting in heavy wait-and-see mood in the downstream; Second, in the early stage, under the dual start of light fertilizer storage and summer tube fertilizer, the downstream market has staged centralized procurement and goods collection, supporting the frequent rise of prices. Up to now, the centralized "panic" goods preparation has temporarily come to an end; Third, there is little demand for plate factories in the industry. The start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is also low. The start-up before and after the Spring Festival will also be reduced, and the purchase of urea will be reduced. As a result, the actual demand for urea is average, so some objective factors, such as the price rise supported by some speculation in the market, are likely to be weak in the follow-up.
Thirdly, before the Spring Festival, urea enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued, and enterprises have a certain amount of support to be issued, which should be closed in succession; In addition, from the perspective of cost, although the coal price has increased and the enterprise cost has increased, it is expected that the price increase of raw materials should be relatively limited on the premise of sufficient coal supply and guaranteed supply of chemical fertilizer. Therefore, from the perspective of cost, the pressure of urea enterprises is not large.
On the whole, the recent price rise in the urea market is constantly rumored, and the price will inevitably be pushed up appropriately, but the negative factors can not be ignored. Especially under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, urea will not become a "runaway wild horse", so it is difficult to have a big rise or fall. It should be dominated by shock operation years ago.