Unknowingly, the price rise of urea continued for another month, with a cumulative increase of about 100 yuan / ton. It seems easy to collect money before the Spring Festival. As of January 27, the factory quotation of Shandong urea manufacturers has mostly reached 2610-2650 yuan / ton. A few factories that have not received enough money can even receive orders at the rising price. The collection before the Spring Festival is really a little mysterious! Is there a risk of falling price after the festival? But the industry is still optimistic about the spring market?
Looking back on the whole January, people in the industry early considered that each urea plant needed to collect money for the Spring Festival holiday, and there were two small drops in the middle. The overall price trend was upward all the way, because the demand exceeded expectations and the supply increase was not too timely.
First of all, at the request of the government, the export order of 150000 tons of urea to Pakistan disrupted the rhythm of buyers. We thought of the winter storage fertilizer reserve (the bidding was conducted in August 2020, the bidding was once, the validity period was two years, and the storage and release time was four months from September to April), the Xiaguan fertilizer delivery (the additional storage was in place before the end of February this year), and the customary assistance to North Korea, Vietnam and other countries, but we didn't expect to provide 150000 tons of urea to Pakistan, The first two batches of 50000 tons will be shipped in January and February respectively. The demand for goods is urgent, and the export price is very high (the FOB price is more than US $565 / ton, much higher than the price available in domestic trade). Naturally, the prices of urea plants with advantages in transportation are rising.
As usual, we always say that we can hype the printing of labels and export. Unexpectedly, we can borrow the east wind of an order to assist Pakistan. Those customers who originally wanted to take the goods when the urea plants cut prices and absorb orders before the Spring Festival threw themselves into the air. After all, considering the limited transportation before and after the Spring Festival, those urea plants with advantages in transportation are supplying to Pakistan again, These customers are in a situation where they have to take urea.
Secondly, the daily output of urea is indeed increased compared with previous years, but a little slower than expected. The daily output was about 125000 tons in January last year and 135000 tons to 145000 tons this year. As of January 27, the daily output of urea finally reached 155000 tons. We have been looking forward to the early resumption of production of these gas head urea since December, and the reduction of shutdown time of coal head urea enterprises in Shanxi and other places. The output will not increase until the end of the month. Those who did not take the goods in the early stage also consider the limited automobile transportation during the Spring Festival, We can't wait for the topdressing of winter wheat, the first batch of fertilizer after the Spring Festival holiday, and the production of compound fertilizer enterprises / mixed fertilizer plants (the grass-roots delivery progress of winter fertilizer storage is too slow, resulting in the repeated delay of the start-up of compound fertilizer). We can only get some urea.
Thirdly, the market confidence has been boosted to a certain extent. In the game between the buyer and the seller, the urea plant has unexpectedly gained the upper hand, which is indeed an advantage in time. The inspection time of winter fertilizer storage is approaching, the storage of summer pipe fertilizer is in place before the end of February, the Spring Festival holiday starts at the end of January, and the Winter Olympic Games opens on February 4, which also affects the transportation. At present, there are few urea stocks in the grass-roots market. Part of the urea stored by medium and large dealers is in the warehouse and part is on the way. The only thing to worry about is the rapid recovery of automobile transportation after the Spring Festival holiday (worried about the epidemic situation, car drivers go home early for the Spring Festival, and the recovery of automobile transportation after the festival should be earlier than in previous years). A large number of fire transportation urea from Xinjiang and other places will also arrive.
In short, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, and urea is still rising! The price increase before the festival is a bit mysterious, but it also reveals that everyone is optimistic about the spring market. There are some rigid needs in the spring market. I hope everyone's urea will arrive in time, everyone will not take too much urea, and I hope the urea price in the spring market can rise moderately.