Domestic fertilizer enterprises and logistics and transportation have recovered one after another. Compared with previous years, the trend of nitrogen fertilizer market this year, especially ammonium chloride, is relatively optimistic. Even if enterprises have a certain amount of inventory, from the perspective of the waiting volume of enterprises, the market of ammonium chloride after the festival can still be expected. Look at the high and firm price of urea in the nitrogen fertilizer market. There are enough orders to be issued before the Spring Festival, so the price also remains at a high level, and so far the price still has a strong trend. In addition, due to environmental protection and production restriction, the start-up of some urea enterprises is limited, so the price is reasonable to operate at a high level, and with the recovery of production and transportation of downstream enterprises after the festival, The short-term urea price may rise slightly, which is good for ammonium chloride.
Since the Spring Festival, the domestic ammonium chloride market has maintained a trend of good operation. The price is high. Although the enterprise inventory has increased, the waiting volume is high. The overall stock volume of the downstream market is limited, and the local supply is relatively tight; It is understood that the domestic mainstream factory quotation of wet ammonium is about 880-1050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of dry ammonium is about 1050-1250 yuan / ton, some of which are the previous single quotation; The start-up of each plant was at a high level, and the inventory increased slightly, but there was no pressure. Next, the trend of ammonium chloride depends on its own supply and demand and the impact of urea.
First, look at the impact of the trend of urea on ammonium chloride. On the one hand, the starting level of urea is still high. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the total daily output is still about 150000 tons. Due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, the starting level of some urea enterprises in Shandong is affected, which is slightly lower than that before the Spring Festival. However, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturers are returning to work one after another. In addition, from the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, The start-up of gas head and coal head urea enterprises will remain high; However, due to the transportation restrictions during the Spring Festival, the delivery of liquid ammonia enterprises closely related to it is under pressure, and the production center of gravity is inclined to urea. After the festival, with the resumption of production by downstream ammonia enterprises, the delivery of liquid ammonia will improve, and the price will also show a rising trend. Then the production center of gravity will appropriately shift from urea to liquid ammonia, so the commencement of urea enterprises should be slightly adjusted, However, under the premise of guaranteed supply, it will not be too low.
Secondly, the supply of ammonium chloride enterprises is sufficient. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industrial operation rate of Lianhe alkali enterprises is about 70%. Except that the load of some enterprises is slightly lower, other enterprises have no maintenance plan, and the annual maintenance plan of some enterprises should be carried out later; However, the soda ash market has warmed up since the Spring Festival, so the production enthusiasm of enterprises is high, and the output of ammonium chloride is also high; In addition, it is also necessary to consider that the commencement of individual ammonium chloride enterprises may be affected to a certain extent under the influence of environmental protection and production restriction. In conclusion, it is expected that the commencement of ammonium chloride enterprises will also remain at about 70% in the short term.
Thirdly, during the Spring Festival, the inventory of ammonium chloride enterprises has increased, and the logistics transportation has not been fully recovered, so the delivery of goods by enterprises is temporarily limited to a certain extent; However, from the perspective of the orders to be issued by each factory before the Spring Festival holiday, they are relatively sufficient, ranging from near the middle of the year to around the middle of March. Therefore, in the long run, when the downstream resumes construction and the transportation is fully restored, the inventory of ammonium chloride enterprises will gradually decrease, the transaction volume of new orders will also increase, and the supply and demand can return to a tight balance in the later stage.
Finally, the demand for ammonium chloride is good, and the demand will increase in succession. On the one hand, with the coming of the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the start-up of some large and medium-sized compound fertilizer plants will be improved. After the 15th day of the first month, the start-up of some small compound fertilizer plants will also resume production, and the purchase of ammonium chloride will continue to increase at that time; On the other hand, the downstream reserves of ammonium chloride are limited before the Spring Festival, and there is still a demand gap after the Spring Festival; Moreover, traders have limited reserves of ammonium chloride, and the purchase of ammonium chloride in the early stage is mostly on demand. Therefore, the reserve progress after the festival will be promoted one after another, which is likely to lead to centralized procurement.
On the whole, the price of urea fluctuates at a high level, and the price is still high compared with ammonium chloride, which has a certain support for small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride; Moreover, the inventory pressure of ammonium chloride enterprises is not large for the time being, and the orders to be issued and received in advance are relatively sufficient. At the same time, the procurement progress in the downstream has been promoted. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride will also operate at a high level. When the demand is released, there may be room for local prices to rise.