After the festival, the price of urea increased significantly, but at the weekend, the horizontal market of urea in many places temporarily remained stable, and the transaction of individual high-end quotations slowed down. However, supported by the orders to be issued in the early stage, the price showed no sign of decline. Now the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2650-2680 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2720 yuan, The mainstream factory price of urea in Hebei is 2670-2680 yuan, the mainstream factory price of urea in Henan is 2680 yuan, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2600 yuan, and the large particle factory price is 2610-2630 yuan. The mainstream factory price of urea in Northeast China has risen to 2720-2800 yuan, the individual high-end factory price is about 2850 yuan, and the urea rises above 100 yuan a week, even if the market demand still exists, However, the wait-and-see atmosphere increased significantly at the weekend, and the downstream is mostly waiting for the further adjustment of urea price. However, the market is mixed with good and bad, and the periodic price trend is not particularly clear.
Positive aspects:
First, the market demand is gradually expanding. Whether it is industrial compound fertilizer enterprises or the downstream agricultural market, there is still much demand. Due to the uncertainty of the urea market in the early stage, the purchasing strength of this year is significantly lower than that in the early stage, and the social inventory is relatively low. As a result, after the Spring Festival, the demand of some downstream markets is relatively urgent. Even if new urea orders are sold one after another in the near future, it can be due to the high price, The trading volume of new orders in the market has been restrained to a certain extent, and the market demand still exists in the later stage. After a large number of goods are shipped and started, the price may continue to rise. Some factories said that due to the large number of orders to be sent and a large number of inquiry orders, the quotation in some northeast regions may continue to rise.
Secondly, the sustainability of fertilizer reserves in summer. Recently, the sales pressure of some factories is relatively small. In addition to the orders to be issued in the early stage, they also undertake and store part of summer pipe fertilizer. Although the daily physical output of urea in China is relatively high, the sales pressure of enterprises is not large temporarily after undertaking and storing.
Finally, the export should be loosened appropriately. After the Spring Festival, the restrictions on Urea Export have eased slightly. According to the market feedback, although there are no large orders for Urea Export recently, the number of small orders is not too small. Because the export profit is much higher than that in the domestic market, even if the legal inspection time is relatively long, the export enthusiasm is relatively high.
Negative aspects:
First, the overall start-up of urea will still increase. At this stage, the daily physical output of urea is maintained at a slightly lower level of 160000 tons, but after the Winter Olympics, Shanxi environmental protection restrictions and the restoration of imported natural gas, the daily physical output of urea will exceed the level of 160000 tons, or even 170000 tons. Before such supply pressure, even if the market demand enters the peak season, the price increase is afraid to be limited.
Secondly, the national light reserve is about to be released. Recent market rumors say that after the 20th of this month, the national commercial light storage can be sold. Although there is demand in the urea market, the supply is large. With the release of light storage, the later supply may continue to increase, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the rise of urea price.
Finally, the possible impact at the policy level. Since October last year, relevant departments have proposed to ensure supply and price stability in order to ensure food security. At this stage, the supply of urea in the domestic market has basically been guaranteed, and price stability may become the main focus in the later stage. Although urea has the support of price rise in the peak season, if the price is too high, I'm afraid relevant departments will intervene strongly.
To sum up, the recent supply pressure still exists, but the demand also exists. The recent trend of urea price is relatively stable. Under the dual influence of demand and supply, it is expected that the recent urea price will fluctuate only in a narrow range, so it is difficult to make a major adjustment.