Just ten days after the festival, urea has experienced "rise, fall and rise", which can be described as twists and turns. At this stage, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2600-2640 yuan, and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2630 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2640 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2590-2620 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2560 yuan, and that of large particles is 2580-2610 yuan. Urea is rapidly rising, rapidly falling behind and entering the channel of exploration. There are two main factors for the manufacturers this time: on the one hand, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the Central Plains has gradually started, and the urea plants in Shandong, Henan and other places have tentatively increased; on the other hand, the futures market is improving on Friday, and there have been some changes in the market procurement mentality, but some traders are still waiting for the moment, The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, although there is still demand, there is no reduction in supply. At this stage, the market demand gap still exists and the quantity is relatively high, but the overall market supply is still at a high level. According to the rough statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the daily physical output of urea in China is currently maintained at a slightly higher level of 150000 tons. However, after next week, most limited production enterprises plan to resume production, which is expected to be in the middle of March, The overall production may reach the level of more than 160000 tons, and the overall supply pressure still exists. Even if the overall industrial demand starts to increase after the Winter Olympic Games, the supply will also increase. In addition, with the launch of the light storage market, there may be twists and turns in the substantial increase of the price.

Secondly, the policy once again emphasizes the guarantee of supply. On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy", Notice said "Ensure the supply and price of important raw materials and primary products such as iron ore and chemical fertilizer, further strengthen the supervision of the spot market of bulk commodities, and strengthen the monitoring and early warning of bulk commodity prices; support enterprises to invest in the development of mineral development projects with domestic resources such as iron ore and copper mine and meet the requirements of ecological and environmental protection; promote the comprehensive utilization of renewable resources such as scrap steel, waste non-ferrous metals and waste paper Utilization and improve the guarantee ability of "urban mines" to resources. " This also means that the overall supply of urea should ensure a relatively stable state. Some agricultural traders in Northeast China have purchased some goods in the early stage, so they are cautious about the price at this stage. In addition, the supply is relatively high, and the progress of procurement is relatively slow.

To sum up, the overall price of urea fluctuates abnormally recently, and the rapid fluctuation of the market has delayed the procurement in the downstream market. Although the market is on the sidelines for the time being, according to the current agricultural demand procurement situation, the urea quotation in the Central Plains area is likely to rise. With the addition of the increase in production of industrial board plants and compound fertilizer enterprises after the Winter Olympic Games, the price may also rise, However, the market prices in Northeast China and other places are mostly lower than the factory quotation at this stage, and it is expected that the quotation will not be raised again in the short term.