Recently, the price of urea has been adjusted frequently, and the rise and fall seem to have not stopped. From the sentiment of the market, the trend of urea has been bearish recently, and the price has also fallen slightly. Only part of it has increased slowly with the support of just need. At present, the start-up of urea plants is at a high level, with a total daily output of 154000 tons. Recently, the focus of the industry is on the release time of light storage fertilizer and summer tube fertilizer, which may be postponed at the end of the month, and the supply of urea will increase significantly in the later stage. In any case, this is pouring cold water on the slightly consolidated urea market, so it is understandable to be bearish on urea.

At present, the price of urea is stable, falling slightly, and the decline is dominant. For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is about 2600-2650 yuan / ton, and the receiving price of urea by Linyi compound fertilizer factory has also fallen to 2630 yuan / ton. The receiving mood in the grass-roots market in Jiangsu and Anhui is not strong, and the dealers will be under pressure when they take the goods; The mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan decreased to about 2600-2610 yuan / ton, and the transaction was poor. With the release or approaching of light storage fertilizer and summer tube fertilizer, the supply and demand of urea has attracted much attention, and the price trend may also move.

First of all, the supply of urea remains high and will increase significantly. According to the statistics of a few enterprises with a daily output of 40000 tons of urea in the surrounding Winter Olympic Games, the daily output of urea has been successfully completed; On the other hand, some urea enterprises under planned overhaul are also resuming production in succession; Moreover, the supply and price are guaranteed. In order to ensure the smooth progress of spring farming, urea enterprises will maintain a high start-up rate if there are no accidents; The price of liquid ammonia in many places has dropped to a certain extent, and some enterprises may maintain high production enthusiasm for urea to alleviate the pressure of liquid ammonia; Finally, according to the market feedback, the release of light storage fertilizer is expected in the near future, which may be at the end of the month or near the end of March. At that time, the supply of urea in the market will increase. Although the price of light storage is high and low, it will also follow the market, and the increase of supply price will inevitably have the risk or space of downward pressure. However, we should also consider the impact of environmental protection inspection on the production of local urea enterprises. On the whole, the supply of urea is increasing but difficult to reduce.

Secondly, in order to ensure the smooth progress of spring ploughing and the premise of ensuring supply and stable price, coal and natural gas give priority to the production of chemical fertilizer enterprises. At present, the coal supply is sufficient and the price has been significantly reduced; Although the supply of natural gas in Southwest China is limited, a few enterprises say that the supply of natural gas may increase at the end of the month or the beginning of next month, and the start-up of urea enterprises may be improved; Moreover, there are rumors that a newly put into operation urea enterprise in Inner Mongolia will ship in the near future, which will have an impact on the price of surrounding urea at that time.

Thirdly, the demand for urea still exists, but it lacks centralized procurement support, and the resistance in the downstream is increasing. The demand for agriculture has weakened, especially the high price has led to increased resistance in the downstream market, and the procurement is carried out on demand. The dealers of large, medium and small traders are also bearish on the high price of urea, so the procurement is also cautious; The industrial demand is acceptable, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises has picked up, the purchase of urea has increased, and the start-up of plywood plants has also increased. However, since this time, the price of urea is high, and the price of phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer is also high. Although the price of finished compound fertilizer in the downstream has increased due to the increase of cost, according to the market feedback, the transaction situation is not satisfactory, so there is resistance to the high price of urea, In addition, the export volume of urea is still limited, and the domestic supply pressure is not small.

On the whole, the start-up of urea enterprises has been very high. Recently, there are signals and expectations of the release of light storage fertilizer and summer tube fertilizer. The supply side will increase, which will also increase the sales pressure in the domestic market, which will have a certain negative impact on the current price. However, after all, the demand still exists, and the downstream takes goods on demand. It is expected that the urea market will weaken in the near future, and the price should fall slightly.