This week, the domestic focus is still focused on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the chemical fertilizer market has also been affected to some extent. There is obvious international inflation. First, the arrival price of some potassium chloride in Heilongjiang has exceeded 5000 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the price of sulfur has continuously increased by more than 100 yuan, the self raised price of some high-end ports has also exceeded 3000 yuan, and the cost of ammonium phosphate plants has increased, It is not difficult to expect that the price may still rise in the later stage, and the urea market can not restrain itself. The price of urea was still weak last week. Many places have also raised the price of urea this week: at this stage, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2700 yuan, and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2760 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2710-2740 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2700-2710 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2620-2660 yuan, and that of large particles is 2650-2700 yuan. Although at the beginning of the price increase, the tentative meaning of most factories is obvious, at this stage, the price increase of urea in many places has been made real. The main reasons are as follows:

First, there is still market demand. Since the end of last year, some traders believe that the price of urea will decline after the Spring Festival and suspend the procurement plan. However, after the Spring Festival, the price of urea will increase by more than 100 yuan a week, disrupting the procurement plan of some downstream markets. Due to the heavy bearish sentiment in the market, they are still waiting and waiting. After the Winter Olympic Games ended on February 20, the demand of the industrial market hit again, Part of the hard demand has recently become a state of waiting for rice to be cooked. Coupled with the start of agricultural market demand, under the double superposition, the rising urea price gradually tends to be solid. With the gradual rise of trading volume, the market's fear of not being able to buy goods began to increase, which increased the market trading volume.

Secondly, the environment of chemical fertilizer has increased. Recently, potassium chloride took the lead in raising the price, while the increase of sulfur also increased the cost of ammonium phosphate, and the price of compound fertilizer was also increased in this wave. The price adjustment direction of urea was relatively fast. Although the grass-roots market was temporarily cautious, there was less abandonment of land in recent two years, that is to say, the actual fertilizer consumption in the market still exists, and the price of urea also shows signs of being pulled up in the near future.

Finally, the initial amount of light storage is not large. It is rumored that there was a signal of release of light storage in early March, but according to the conditions of national commercial light storage, this light storage should have started to take goods in September and October last year, but it was at the highest point of the whole year at that time, the overall reserve risk was high, and the enterprise was still mainly realized. In the early stage of light storage sales, the quantity put on the market should be small, In addition, the factory inventory is temporarily low, and the overall selling price of urea is still high.
To sum up, recently, the selling price of large particle traders in some regions has entered the level of 3000 yuan, and the panic still exists. It is expected that the price of urea will still rise. However, at this stage, Zhou Qing's overall price adjustment of urea is obviously too frequent, coupled with the limited purchasing power in the downstream market, it does not eliminate the possibility of strong intervention by relevant departments in the medium and long term.