This week, the domestic urea market still maintained the rhythm of small adjustment, both rising and falling, and the price was adjusted repeatedly. Although on the surface there seemed to be a feeling of "moistening things silently", from the perspective of the downstream market, the urea price was on the high side, and the decline was not large. Up to June, although there is demand for top dressing fertilizer in Northeast and North China, the overall agricultural demand for urea has become weak, and the demand is relatively limited. In addition, the release of Xiaguan fertilizer will have a certain negative impact on the supply of goods and the mentality of the industry, which will appropriately suppress the current high price urea market. However, due to the low urea inventory in the downstream market and the domestic and international fertilizer market, it is difficult for the urea price to fall significantly in the short term.

Due to the high price, the downstream resistance is increasing, the delivery of urea enterprises is slowing down, the inventory of some enterprises has increased, and the price pressure has dropped. For example, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is about 3160 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Anhui is about 3250-3300 yuan / ton. At the same time, the market wholesale price is also loose; The receiving price of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer factory fell back and rebounded to about 3230 yuan / ton, which was stable. After the release of summer tube fertilizer and the change of domestic supply and demand, the trend of urea market has attracted much attention recently.

First of all, the operating rate of urea enterprises is not low, and partial temporary reduction has become a "timely help" to support enterprises' short-term price support or exploratory rise. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the total daily output of urea enterprises is about 160000 tons. Except for a few urea enterprises in North China who stop inspection or reduce the load slightly, most of the enterprises in other regions are operating normally, and a large urea plant in Inner Mongolia has just produced products, which has a great impact on the northeast region; From the perspective of the production focus of enterprises, as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, the prices of some enterprises fall back in order to reduce the inventory of liquid ammonia. However, compared with urea, the price of liquid ammonia is also high. In particular, the price of local liquid ammonia may rebound after the festival. It is OK if the production focus is appropriately shifted to more liquid ammonia after the festival; Since June 1, Xiaguan fertilizer has been released in succession. Although there is no obvious negative effect for the time being, after all, there is an increase in the overall supply of goods. In addition, the start-up of enterprises remains at a high level and there is an obvious conflict between the lower and lower reaches of high prices. It is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and attract orders.
Secondly, the urea market lacks the support of centralized demand. The agricultural demand has become weak. Except for the local topdressing purchase, it is generally carried out on demand; The increased risk estimation of high priced urea has led to a decrease in the enthusiasm of large agricultural material suppliers for urea procurement, mainly back-to-back operation, and there are also some inventory sources, so the main way to take goods is to supplement orders; In the aspect of industry, some compound fertilizer enterprises are carrying out the advance harvest of autumn fertilizer, and the production is started one after another, and the overall demand for urea is acceptable; The plywood factory still purchases urea on demand; In addition, the international urea price is running at a high level. Under the condition of restricting the export of chemical fertilizer, the occasional Urea Export still gives a slight boost to the domestic market.

Thirdly, the price of bulk commodities remains high, and urea enterprises have cost support; Although maintaining supply and price stability runs through the fertilizer market, there are no clear price control measures, so the short-term urea price may not be significantly adjusted; In addition, the price of ammonium chloride, a small nitrogen fertilizer, is running at a high level, local spot supply is tight, and after the price of urea has dropped, some downstream markets may slightly tilt their purchasing focus to urea.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, the start-up of urea enterprises is relatively high, and the supply of goods in North China market is increasing. Although there is demand, it is mainly purchased on demand. Therefore, it is expected that the overall market will be weak in the near future, and the high level will be slightly adjusted.