Recently, after the festival, the urea market has changed from a high-level consolidation to a gradual upward trend. Driven by the local agricultural demand for top dressing and goods and the autumn fertilizer production of industrial compound fertilizer plants, or deliberately pushed up, the tenacious urea market is like an "open" market. The price rise is also cloudy, and the pace of price rise is slightly accelerated. Urea prices in some main production areas have risen one after another; However, when the price is already on the high side and the supply has increased, the resistance of the grass-roots market is also increasing. It is inevitable to pick up goods on demand or wait and see.

The price of urea in Shandong, Lianghe, Shanxi and other places has risen by about 20-50 yuan / ton. Now the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong has risen to about 3180-3220 yuan / ton, that in Hebei has risen to about 3210-3230 yuan / ton, that in Henan has risen to about 3230-3260 yuan / ton, and that in Shanxi has risen to 3160-3170 yuan / ton, The receiving price of urea from Linyi compound fertilizer factory was also raised to 3270 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable. However, there was an obvious upside down phenomenon in the grass-roots market, or it was sold with compound fertilizer. At this time, the factors that pushed up the price of urea should be seen from the perspective of supply and demand and policies.

On the one hand, the increase of urea market supply is an obvious negative factor. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the total daily output of urea is about 165000 tons, which is higher than that of last week. The new unit of a large urea plant in Inner Mongolia has also produced products; Since June, the summer tube fertilizer has been released in succession, and the supply of urea put into the market is increasing; In addition, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped by a large margin, and some enterprises may tilt their production focus slightly to urea. In addition, the urea plant of a plant in Northeast China is about to resume production; However, under the pressure of environmental protection, some urea enterprises in Shanxi may reduce production. From this point of view, most of the urea production is still high.

On the other hand, due to the relay of domestic industrial and agricultural demand, urea prices will inevitably go up. In agriculture, there is still a strong demand for local topdressing, and the downstream should purchase or supplement the order appropriately; The demand of the plywood factory is carried out in an orderly manner, and the demand progress is acceptable; During the autumn fertilizer production of the compound fertilizer plant, the demand for urea is good, while the spot supply of small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride is tight, and the price is at a high level. Some compound fertilizer enterprises turn to purchase urea, and the use of ammonium chloride instead of urea should be reduced; However, big agricultural materials suppliers are confused about the rise in urea prices. With the rise in urea prices, the risk coefficient is also increasing. Therefore, in addition to the purchased inventory sources, new orders are mostly purchased on demand.

Moreover, the overall social inventory of urea is relatively low, and the ex factory price of urea is always maintained at more than 3000 yuan / ton, which makes traders and grass-roots markets retreat. The urea reserve is very limited, and the inventory of urea production enterprises is not high, which has not yet formed obvious pressure. Whenever the demand increases, there are potential factors pushing up the market.

However, from the perspective of policy, on the one hand, the export of chemical fertilizer continues to be limited. For example, the extension of legal inspection time will make it difficult to increase the export of urea, and the supply side of the domestic market will remain abundant; On the other hand, under the domestic environment of maintaining supply and stable prices, and from the perspective of raw coal and natural gas prices, urea enterprises lack cost support, which is also a key constraint that urea prices will not rise significantly.

Finally, on the whole, the support of the demand for goods in the industrial and agricultural markets and the occasional boost in the international market have led to the high price of urea. However, from the perspective of bad news, the supply is sufficient, the urea enterprises are profitable, the market sentiment is not enthusiastic, and the procurement is mostly on demand. It is expected that urea may still have a little room to push up in the middle of this period with more favorable support.