In July, with the end of summer fertilizer markets in various regions, the overall demand for fertilizer is relatively light. Compared with the same period last year, the price of compound fertilizer increased significantly in the summer of this year, mainly because the cost of raw materials continued to rise, and the collective prices of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers rose sharply. Under cost pressure, the quotation of compound fertilizer enterprises had to "rise with the tide". Supported by the price rise, the autumn fertilizer pre harvest activity this year has also been advanced. As early as the end of May, some enterprises have started, and the price is mainly "high". However, the promotion of the autumn fertilizer market has slowed down recently, and pessimism has increased.
As of the end of this week, according to zhongfei.com, the mainstream factory quotation of 45% chlorine based Wheat Fertilizer (such as 25-13-7/25-14-6) nationwide is about 3900-4050 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of about 50 yuan / ton. Although the recent negative factors are superimposed, most compound fertilizer enterprises strive to stabilize the price. Under the condition that the factory quotation remains stable, appropriately relax the preferential margin, or suspend the receipt of orders, and implement pending orders. At present, the price support of compound fertilizer has not been as strong as before. If the negative factors further deepen, the compound fertilizer market may also be weak.

First, the trend of raw material price reduction is obvious. Since late June, the fertilizer market has changed its price rise, and the scope of price reduction has gradually expanded. Among them, the price of urea has fallen significantly, and the ex factory price in some markets has even fallen below 3000 yuan / ton. In view of the light demand for short-term industry and agriculture, the urea market may continue to be under pressure; The price of Monoammonium has fallen steadily and secretly, the sales price of traders is low, and the market demand has also weakened. Recently, the purchase intention of compound fertilizer plants is limited, and the raw sulfur market has repeatedly declined, so the aftermarket of Monoammonium may not be optimistic; In the past two weeks, the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate have also declined, with an overall decline of about 50-150 yuan / ton, and the demand is also relatively unsatisfactory.

Secondly, downstream demand is no longer panic. Because of the ferocious rise in the price of fertilizer in May, although the autumn fertilizer market was launched ahead of schedule, the purchase and sale situation was hot, and the mentality of buying up or not buying down in the downstream dominated, and the panic stock mentality of dealers was strong. Up to now, the downstream stock volume in some regions has exceeded about 50%, or even more. However, recently, the stock pace began to slow down. First, the raw material market is no longer high, and there is the possibility of further decline, The price of compound fertilizer may also decline; The second reason is that it is still far away from the autumn fertilizer season, and the existing stock volume of some dealers has been able to meet the early sales, so the replenishment activities can be postponed appropriately, and the overall wait-and-see mood is aggravated.

Finally, the upstream supply problems appear. As of the end of this week, according to zhongfei.com, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer plants nationwide was about 45.6%, with a slight decline on a weekly basis. Since the spring and summer markets, the operation of compound fertilizer enterprises has been tepid, mainly due to weak demand and the recent decline in factory opening rate. First, the decline in the raw material market continued, and it was not clear in the later period, and the speed of further raw material procurement by factories slowed down, Properly control the commencement to cope with subsequent market changes; The second reason is that the downstream pick-up speed is very slow. Even if enterprises introduce warehousing, logistics and other policies, dealers are not interested and generally cautious.

To sum up, the influence of bad factors is fermenting, and the price adjustment of compound fertilizer in autumn is limited temporarily, but the possibility of price reduction cannot be ruled out for a long time.