With the continued weakness of the fertilizer market, the autumn fertilizer market as a whole has been deadlocked. Because there is no obvious good guidance in the short term, some compound fertilizer enterprises have to choose "compromise", and the downward range of local prices this week has expanded. According to China fertilizer network, the mainstream ex factory price of 45% chlorine based general-purpose compound fertilizer nationwide is about 3800-3850 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than the price at the end of June. In autumn, high nitrogen The price of high phosphorus wheat fertilizer also shows a downward trend. Although compound fertilizer enterprises have generally striven to stabilize the price since the beginning of the month, the cost of raw materials has fallen significantly, and it is a foregone conclusion to reduce the ex factory quotation.

Buy up rather than buy down, and the confidence of downstream goods preparation is poor in the short term. Therefore, some compound fertilizer enterprises will increase the minimum guarantee policy when the original price is reduced, and the time is up to the end of August or September. Not only that, if the dealers can pick up the goods within the specified time, they will also attach preferential subsidies for picking up the goods, with varying amounts. Faced with the continuous "concessions" of compound fertilizer enterprises, downstream dealers are still relatively "calm". Combined with the current raw material market and supply and demand situation, it is absolutely necessary to wait and see at this stage.

First of all, raw materials are queued up for price reduction and the decrease is large. Following the rapid and substantial decline in urea prices, the recent decline in some markets has slowed down slightly. In view of the excessive price reduction this round, the prices of some factories are gradually approaching the cost. It is expected that the next adjustment may be narrow, but the possibility of continued decline cannot be ruled out; Monoammonium has a poor market, the price of raw sulfur has fallen "precipitously", and the market demand is light, so it is difficult to support the market to remain strong only by the price of phosphorus ore; The potash fertilizer market is slightly depressed, and the market demand is also cold. The ex factory price of domestic potash fertilizer is temporarily stable, but the import source price of port traders has decreased. Therefore, the overall price of raw materials has been loosened to varying degrees.

Secondly, the downstream sentiment changed from panic to pessimism. Compared with previous years, the start-up time of the compound fertilizer market in autumn this year is earlier. As early as the end of May and the beginning of June, some compound fertilizer enterprises have started to collect in advance. The seemingly optimistic aftermarket situation has led to the enthusiasm of downstream dealers to make money. However, after the recent comprehensive decline of fertilizer prices, the compound fertilizer market has stagnated and the pessimism has doubled. Except that the demand in autumn is not urgent for the time being, Worry about future prices is the biggest obstacle. At present, the raw material market is not stable. Once it continues to fall, the price of compound fertilizer will also weaken. Then, it is better to wait until the market is clear.

Finally, the factory starts less and shipments are slow. According to zhongfei.com, as of the end of this week, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises nationwide was about 39.8%, showing a downward trend for three consecutive weeks, and the decline was obvious this week. In addition, the delivery of goods from some factories was also very slow, mainly due to the poor willingness of dealers to pick up goods. On the one hand, it is far from the start of the autumn terminal market, and the purchase and sales at the grass-roots level are light, on the other hand, the raw material market has continued to decline, At present, only a few compound fertilizer enterprises have issued the minimum guarantee policy, and the price has not yet reached the psychological expectation level of dealers. Therefore, the short-term downstream will continue to be cautious, and the inventory pressure of local compound fertilizer plants may increase.

To sum up, the future market of compound fertilizer in autumn is not very optimistic. After the raw material market is stable, the new price of fertilizer in autumn will gradually become clear, and the short-term purchase and sale will continue to be deadlocked.