Since July, the fertilizer market has undergone earth shaking changes. The fertilizer price as a whole has shown a downward trend, and the price reduction has become increasingly fierce. Among them, there are obvious signs of weakness in the raw material market, and the cost support of compound fertilizer has decreased. Although the autumn fertilizer market is in progress, the purchasing and marketing atmosphere is very depressed. Compared with previous years, the autumn market started earlier this year. As early as may, some compound fertilizer enterprises have started to collect in advance. The price of autumn fertilizer is not only "high", but also the enthusiasm of downstream funds is relatively high. However, recently, the fertilizer market has reversed, and the autumn market in some regions has slowed down.

The cost of raw materials has fallen sharply, and the market price of compound fertilizer has also decreased. Rumors of low prices have gradually increased this week. Some enterprises have added preferential policies, such as limited time delivery rebate and storage subsidies, on the basis of reducing factory quotations. In addition, the minimum guarantee policy is also common, and it lasts until near September. The loosening of compound fertilizer prices has exacerbated the deadlock in the autumn market to a certain extent. Even if enterprises reduce prices to a minimum, it is difficult to boost the confidence of downstream goods preparation, mainly due to the possibility of further weakness in the raw material market, and the price reduction of compound fertilizer may exceed expectations.

First of all, the price reduction of raw materials is out of control. Since the beginning of the month, the price of compound fertilizer raw materials has been reduced collectively, and the range has gradually increased. After the urea price rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, the strength is slightly insufficient in recent days, and even partial price reductions have occurred. Due to the light demand in the off-season, the domestic urea market will be mainly under pressure; The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is low, the purchase demand is limited, the new orders of Monoammonium are rare, the price of raw sulfur is falling precipitously, the cost of Monoammonium is reduced, and the market price is mainly weakening; The potash fertilizer market is poor, the price of potassium chloride is slowly falling, the impact of import sources is increasing, and the sales price of port traders is also declining. Therefore, the downward fluctuation of raw material market continues.

Secondly, the downstream mood has changed greatly. The autumn compound fertilizer market has experienced twists and turns. From the panic stock in the downstream at the initial stage to the current wait-and-see, the overall mood in the downstream has become more and more pessimistic. First, the autumn market was relatively optimistic. After the price fell, dealers were worried that the payment and settlement price in the early stage was higher than the normal level of the market. Under the condition that the terminal demand had not been released, they chose to operate cautiously in the near future; The second reason is that the price of raw materials has not yet stabilized, some fertilizer varieties are in the downward channel, the price of compound fertilizer is not yet fully clear, and may even continue to decline, buy up or not, and there is still a distance from the autumn sales season. Therefore, it is difficult to ease the short-term market stalemate.

Finally, upstream factories are in a dilemma. As of the end of this week, according to China fertilizer network, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer plants nationwide was about 37.6%, showing a gradual downward trend for several consecutive weeks, and the decline has expanded in the past two weeks. The decline in the start-up of compound fertilizer plants is a helpless move. The first reason is that the raw material market fluctuates greatly. In order to avoid risks, the pace of factory procurement has to slow down. Given that the current fertilizer demand is in the off-season, the load can be appropriately reduced; The second reason is the price decline, the dealers' delivery speed is generally slow, and some factories have a serious inventory backlog, so they can only temporarily stop and wait for the demand to improve before resuming production. Therefore, the short-term start-up of factories is not ideal.

To sum up, there are few new orders in the compound fertilizer market recently, and there is no clear guidance for the price. However, the rumors of local low prices have increased, and it is difficult to find good news. The aftermarket in autumn may be less than expected.