This round of urea price increase in Shandong, Lianghe and other places has not been more than a week, and the increase is also limited. It is about 60-80 yuan / ton. Due to the weak demand and the resistance of the downstream to the urea price increase, the urea price has dropped by 10-50 yuan / ton in some parts. Meanwhile, the enterprises also show some emotion about the price reduction, thinking that the urea price may be adjusted toward the cost line, but the raw coal price is moderately lowered, and the enterprise cost is also reduced, At present, the price of urea is not so low as to tear down the price, nor has it reached the cost of most enterprises.

Urea is at the initial stage of small price reduction. It is understood that the mainstream urea factory price in Hebei is about 2350-2370 yuan / ton, the mainstream urea factory price in Henan is about 2420 yuan / ton, the low-end is about 2340 yuan / ton, and the mainstream urea factory price in Shanxi is about 2360-2410 yuan / ton. Some of them can be negotiated. Recently, both the raw material fertilizer market and the finished compound fertilizer market have been in weak operation. Urea, as a basic fertilizer, has a serious impact on the downstream. The recent decrease in urea price should also focus on the changes in supply and demand.

In terms of supply, the supply of urea is partially reduced. For example, some urea enterprises in Jincheng District of Shanxi Province stop production or reduce production for maintenance. The total daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. However, after August, the urea enterprises overhauled in Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places will resume production in succession. From the production situation of each plant, the daily output in August should fluctuate around 150000 tons, and the supply pressure is not small; However, the price of liquid ammonia has fluctuated in the recent period, and the market difference between the South and the north is obvious. The prices of Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and Shaanxi have increased, which has a certain support for urea. However, after the price increase, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream has increased, and the delivery of goods has slowed down. Compared with urea, there is no obvious advantage for more liquid ammonia, while the price of liquid ammonia in Hubei and southwest regions has dropped. For example, the factory reference price of Hubei mainstream acceptance is about 3100-3110 yuan / ton, The ex factory reference price of mainstream cash exchange in Sichuan and Chongqing is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton. It is not excluded that if the price continues to fall, some enterprises may incline their production center to urea.

Demand is weak, and short-term supply reduction can hardly make up for the gap in demand. First, in the off-season of agricultural demand, the mainstream mode of the grass-roots market is to use and collect; Second, large traders have reasonable expectations for urea. They think that the price increase in the early stage is only a short-term shock or speculation, so the purchase is always conducted on demand; Third, in the industrial aspect, the finished fertilizer inventory of the compound fertilizer plant is high, and the sales are under pressure. There is no sign of startup in the autumn fertilizer market in the short term. On the contrary, the production is mostly stopped or reduced due to the inventory pressure, so the overall operation is low, and the purchase of raw urea is relatively small; Fourth, the price of small-scale nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride has been lowered, and due to the weak demand, the enterprises mainly discuss the price, and the adjustment of the price constantly impacts the nitrogen fertilizer market, forming an antagonistic relationship with urea to a certain extent, and urea also passively adjusts the price; Finally, regarding the export of urea, it is said that the legal inspection of Urea Export may be relaxed to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that the market will use this rumor to push up the price. However, the news has not been confirmed so far. The export still needs legal inspection, and the unilateral demand of the domestic market is limited.

In general, the supply of urea market is sufficient, and the continuous recovery of construction will lead to the situation of excess supply, while the industrial and agricultural demand is not improving, which is the key factor restricting the price of urea. In addition, the lack of confidence in the industry will inevitably cause the price to fall in the near future.