After the National Day holiday, the autumn fertilizer market is about to end completely, and downstream demand is gradually winding down. Although the second half of the market is highly expected, the demand for wheat fertilizer replenishment in autumn is far less than expected, and even some purchase and sales activities have been hastily ended. The compound fertilizer market was controversial this autumn, mainly because the raw material market remained weak, the cost support of compound fertilizer was significantly weakened, and the circulation price fell sharply. Now, the focus is shifted from autumn to winter storage, and the difficulties faced by the winter storage market of compound fertilizer cannot be underestimated.

Recently, the urea price of some domestic factories has risen slightly, and the urea market has been supported by the changes in raw material cost, supply and demand relationship and the just announced printing standard. Even if there is no sign of a big rise, it will be properly strengthened for a period of time, which is good for the "helpless" winter storage market of compound fertilizer. If the urea price can maintain a normal level in the long run, the atmosphere of winter storage may be improved, However, considering the current raw material cost and market mentality, the winter storage market of compound fertilizer may be pessimistic.

First of all, the overall market of raw materials is sluggish. The urea price fluctuates periodically and frequently, so we can only refer to the fluctuation of short-term market. As an important part of autumn demand, the market of monoammonium and diammonium is not good or bad. The price of monoammonium has dropped sharply all the way and has remained stable in the near future; The relative increase in demand for diammonium in the autumn of this year is mainly due to the low price and higher cost performance ratio than that of compound fertilizer, which may make it difficult to fully digest the inventory of partial compound fertilizer; The international market is weak, the supply of goods is increasing, the price of potassium chloride continues to be under pressure, and the future market is still not optimistic. Therefore, the raw material market is temporarily unable to see signs of overall recovery.

Secondly, the demand for winter storage is not urgent. After the National Day holiday, the purchase and sale of wheat fertilizer in autumn is drawing to a close. So far, the demand for seasonal compound fertilizer will gradually decrease. Compared with previous years, the autumn sowing activity may be delayed this year, mainly due to the frequent rainy weather in some areas during the National Day. Next, the winter storage and pre collection work of various compound fertilizer enterprises will be carried out one after another, but the actual winter storage demand of the terminal is far away. As we all know, taking the northern region as an example, the winter storage work of compound fertilizer is mainly to prepare for fertilizer use in the spring of next year. The grass-roots market will not start in a large area until the spring of next year. The overall span is long. In addition to the unpredictable fertilizer market, most dealers are cautious.

Finally, the downstream mentality changes. This autumn, the market of compound fertilizer is chaotic, and the price gap between the front and the back is large. The price of compound fertilizer also drops after the raw material cost drops. Due to the hot market in the early stage, the dealers are enthusiastic about making payments. Although the enterprises have generally introduced a minimum guarantee policy, but due to the pressure of raw material cost, the final settlement price is still not completely in the end. The dealers' sales profit is negligible, and even there is a risk of loss. Therefore, The enthusiasm of downstream winter storage is affected. In addition, the future market of raw materials may be difficult to improve. It is expected that the wait-and-see mentality of dealers will dominate in the initial stage of winter storage.

To sum up, in any case, this year's compound fertilizer winter storage market will be more difficult than previous years. It is expected that most enterprises will focus on interest collection at the initial stage, and the introduction of specific prices may be delayed.