With the gradual ending of fertilizer use in autumn, the procurement of urea market has slowed down relatively, and the epidemic situation and the convening of major conferences have also directly or indirectly affected the delivery of urea. After the National Day, the market trading atmosphere is light. Although the price has occasionally increased, the market support is not very sufficient, but the urea prices in some regions have rebounded slightly this weekend. Now, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong is 2460-2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), The receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 2510 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2530-2560 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2460-2490 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2450-2460 yuan, and that of large particles is 2490 yuan. It is estimated that the price of urea in the near future will only fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is difficult to see significant rises and falls in the short term, mainly in the following aspects:

First, the epidemic affects shipment and production. Since the middle of August, the epidemic situation in Xinjiang has gradually spread. Up to now, some local regions are still in a silent state. The local sales of motor vehicles in southern Xinjiang are limited, and only a certain amount of them are transported out of Xinjiang by fire, but the number is not too much. On the other hand, due to the epidemic situation, some local inspection and repair enterprises have also been delayed in resuming production. In addition, with the convening of major meetings, the factory's resuming production time has been delayed again and again, and some factories outside Xinjiang have also been affected by the meetings, The resumption of production was delayed until after the meeting, so the daily production of domestic urea remained at a relatively low level in the short term. Although the hard demand was relatively weak in the near future, the supply pressure was relatively small, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range.

Secondly, the demand is small but the quantity of inquiry is acceptable. In terms of agricultural market, the grass-roots procurement in autumn is in the final stage, and the production of compound fertilizer in autumn has also come to an end. Only the southern market in China still has sporadic demand, and the sales in the mainstream regions in the Central Plains are under pressure. Although the downward sales in the northeast market are average, the enthusiasm for inquiry in the northeast market is relatively high. In addition to the gradual start of the commercial purchase of chemical fertilizer for short storage, even if the hard demand is relatively small in the short term, However, some traders have followed up appropriately. Some compound fertilizer enterprises have relatively low raw material storage and plan to purchase moderately. As far as the overall transaction status of the whole country is concerned, although the transaction performance of urea is relatively ordinary, there is no low price in the market, and the quotation is tentatively stable.

Finally, the high level of raw materials and panic psychology. Recently, the coal price has fluctuated in a narrow range, but according to the current feedback from the industry, the coal price is expected to rise. However, the intervention of the relevant departments last year is vivid. There are still some traders in the market waiting for the regulation of the policy, and the panic mentality remains. However, on the contrary, in the early stage of the intervention, the coal price rose significantly, but the price adjustment still needs a certain period, A part of the industry insiders are also purchasing a proper amount of urea recently, waiting for the rise of the cost, and selling off the increase of the urea price in the later period of betting. Under this kind of hedging, the overall price of urea fluctuates only by a narrow range.
To sum up, the supply and demand of the urea market are weak in the near future, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that the price will hardly rise or fall too much before the end of the meeting. After the meeting, the range of urea price adjustment may increase after the supply increment and transportation gradually recover. Later, it mainly depends on the adjustment of the commencement, the transportation situation in various mainstream regions, and whether relevant intervention policies can be introduced for coal.