Recently, the price of NPK compound fertilizer in China has been rising, among which the nitrogen fertilizer market is relatively hot. For example, the urea market is growing rapidly. Although the industry is worried, the urea industry is going in the opposite direction. The price keeps rising. Now it seems to be rising to the top of the storm, and the atmosphere of high price speculation still exists; After the continuous increase of urea, ammonium chloride took the wind to set sail. The price has risen by a large margin from the initial cautious small increase to the current increase. In addition, the production enterprises have enough orders to be issued, so it is inevitable to control the receipt of orders. However, although the urea price is high, the risk factor is also increasing, and the ammonium chloride market relying on the rise of urea is also somewhat passive, but compared with the sales model of traders, Ammonium chloride production enterprises should carefully adjust the price and order receiving rhythm. The price adjustment mode of traders should be carefully observed, so as to avoid becoming a hidden danger factor for the market to become passive in the later period.

Since this week, the overall increase of urea has been about 100-200 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation is generally about 2700-2800 yuan/ton. With the rapid rise of the price, the market worry atmosphere has increased, and the grassroots market has a wait-and-see mood, but the enthusiasm of big traders to pick up the goods is still good, especially actively preparing for export orders; As of Friday, the receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi, Shandong Province, had risen to 2760 yuan/ton, and the main factory quotation of urea in Hebei Province had risen to about 2740-2760 yuan/ton. Affected by the epidemic situation in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, individual enterprises were forced to stop, and the resumption of production of other parking enterprises was delayed. With the rising price of urea, the trend in the later period has attracted much attention, which should start with supply and demand, costs and policies.

On the one hand, the supply of urea is said to be less, but not more. The total daily output in the near future fluctuates around 150000 tons. The gas head urea enterprises in the southwest region are affected by the supply of natural gas. A few enterprises reduce or stop production. Some gas head urea enterprises have plans to stop production from next month. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanxi, the start of urea enterprises is reduced, and the recovery time is uncertain; The liquid ammonia fluctuates slightly locally, but runs at a high level as a whole. It is mutually supported by the high price urea, and the production center can be adjusted at will; However, a urea plant in Shandong Province is about to resume production, especially due to the continuous increase of urea price recently, the enterprise has a high enthusiasm for production; Some urea in Xinjiang can be exported again, which is slightly bad for the market. On the other hand, in the slack season of domestic agricultural demand, the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, which is positive for urea delivery. However, with the follow-up of the arrival of goods and the impact of local epidemics, the demand will gradually slow down; The hidden risks under the high level may lead to the reduction of the reserves of some large and medium-sized traders, and maintain the right amount of procurement as required; However, the urea export situation is good, and the manufacturers' export pending orders are sufficient, which has significantly boosted the domestic market; Furthermore, it is policy oriented, and we should be aware of the possible policy regulation caused by the rising urea.

The unanticipated large price increase of urea has enabled ammonium chloride. Now, the quotation of ammonium chloride enterprises is also rising in an all-round way, with an overall increase of about 30-100 yuan/ton. Of course, the market traders' speculation is still higher than that. According to China Fertilizer Network, the current mainstream factory quotation of dry ammonium in China is about 950-1100 yuan/ton. The enterprises have enough orders to be issued, and some of them still need to control the receipt of orders, Later, there is room to supplement inflation or increase it with the support of urea.
Of course, the price trend of urea is the key factor affecting the ammonium chloride market. In addition, it also depends on the supply and demand changes of ammonium chloride itself. First of all, ammonium chloride enterprises started at a high level, which is now up to about 82% as a whole. There is a trend of recovery in the near future, and the enterprises are maintaining a high load production plan under the support of high prices, so the supply is sufficient for a long time; Secondly, the commencement of compound fertilizer enterprises has rebounded to nearly 40%, especially in the northeast market, where the progress of light storage is relatively good. Compound fertilizer plants and traders purchase ammonium chloride intensively and in large quantities. In addition, the price of urea is relatively high, and the low price advantage of ammonium chloride is more prominent. Some downstream markets purchase ammonium chloride to replace some urea; Again, in terms of exports, in the past two months, the export volume of ammonium chloride has increased significantly, which has greatly supported the domestic ammonium chloride market, and the manufacturers' export enthusiasm is high.

Finally, on the whole, the urea market is still supported by favorable factors. The price is running at a high level, but there is inevitably a risk of rising and falling in the later period. Therefore, under the influence of the high price of urea in the near future, ammonium chloride has also continued to rise properly, and its own demand side is relatively good. There are sufficient orders to be issued, and the market is also running well. However, its supply is large. In addition, if the urea falls back, the price of ammonium chloride will also be blocked.