Influenced by the export market around the middle of November, the quotation of urea has obviously increased. However, since the beginning of this week, due to the gradual reduction of export support, the market's acceptance of high prices has gradually declined, and the quotation has also shown some signs of decline. While most industries are waiting for urea to continue to decline, the quotation of urea in some regions has slightly increased this Friday afternoon, The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shandong is 2700-2810 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2770 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2710-2800 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2700-2730 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi was 2660 yuan, and that of large particles was 2850 yuan. During the weekend, the upward channel was opened again after the sharp rise and fall of urea price, and the sharp drop expected by the market turned into a bubble again. Although the urea price has risen recently, there are still some variables in the later period, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, incremental supply. Recently, some plants in Jincheng have resumed production, while the Lanhua Tianyue Branch has also produced products in the near future, and the shutdown of gas head enterprises has been postponed. At this stage, the daily supply of urea in China exceeds 150000 tons. Although the gas head enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage, the time is not uniform, and according to the current market, the profits of gas head urea are relatively good, so the maintenance time may be postponed again, On the other hand, some enterprises still have plans to resume production. In the later period, the overall supply will remain at the level of more than 150000, and the export will be temporarily stopped. It is unlikely that the price of urea will increase significantly.

Secondly, demand time is relatively dispersed. At present, the overall social inventory in North China is relatively low. Some factories have a purchase plan in the near future, but some downstream markets still have a certain amount of reserves. The overall purchase time is not uniform, which means that the demand release is relatively average. Although some downstream markets in Northeast China and other places have urgent needs in the short term, it is not enough to support the overall price of urea to continue to adjust significantly upward.

Finally, the epidemic control will gradually fade, and the mismatch between supply and demand will be alleviated. Although the number of confirmed cases in China is still relatively large, according to the latest epidemic prevention regulations, the overall control is gradually weakened, and the transportation link will be gradually improved. At present, the transportation in Xinjiang and other places has gradually recovered, the downstream market demand is reflected, and it is relatively difficult to export. Most factories mainly supply the domestic market demand in the near future, while the control in the mainstream regions is also reduced, and the automobile transportation is gradually restored, The number of goods delivered on the market has gradually increased, and the phenomenon of multiple inquiries for one product has gradually decreased. It is unlikely that the price will be raised significantly.

To sum up, after the recent slight increase of urea price, some downstream markets panicked to follow up. With the weekend's fermentation, the urea price in some regions rebounded by about 50 yuan. When the space for the false high of urea has not faded, its price has rebounded again. However, according to the current feedback from the industry, this urea rebound will not be "smooth", and the urea price in some regions may rebound, However, the hard demand of the market is not very high in the short term. Considering the factors such as supply increment and low cost, it is expected that the urea price will be in a certain deadlock in the later period.