As of the end of this month, urea showed a steady downward trend, and there was no good news to support the market for the time being. However, after New Year's Day, there may be news from India's bidding. In addition, the impact of the epidemic situation is gradually disappearing, and the downstream demand for urea in industry and agriculture is expected to recover. Even if there is no obvious upward trend in urea after New Year's Day, the demand for urea may also recover.

After the New Year's Day, the market of diammonium chloride is expected to recover. Enterprises may issue new quotations. However, the industry believes that the market of diammonium chloride will be greatly improved after the Spring Festival. What are the negative factors hindering the development of diammonium chloride?

First, policy restrictions. "Ensuring supply and stable price" is a consistent policy of the state. The export legal inspection and quota system of diammonium chloride is a restriction system for diammonium chloride export to ensure the domestic "ensuring supply and stable price". In order to ensure a certain export volume, diammonium chloride enterprises will appropriately limit the sharp rise of domestic prices, and give priority to the domestic market, and then consider export matters, mainly because the export price is relatively large compared with the domestic sales profit, In this way, even if the domestic enterprises lose money, they will be appropriately compensated in terms of exports. Although the export volume is not too large in recent years, it also alleviates the overcapacity and other pressures of diammonium enterprises to a certain extent. In this way, the national policy restricts the domestic price of diammonium chloride and the export quantity. The future legal inspection and quota system may still run through 2023, which to some extent hinders the development of diammonium chloride market.

Secondly, premature or late demand leads to abnormal development of the market. Looking at 2022, the demand market for diammonium is either too early or too late. It is estimated that this situation may also occur in 2023. The early start of demand and the rise in the price of diammonium chloride supplement each other. After the price rises, the enterprise receives a certain amount of orders, which makes the demand consume prematurely, the subsequent fertilizer use is still early, and the variables increase. The downstream is not eager to make new purchases, which makes the demand for diammonium chloride lack stamina, and it is easy to cause the price of diammonium chloride to decline when the fertilizer is really used. If the demand for diammonium is too late and the real demand time is too short, it may be difficult to find the spot at that time, which will also discourage some demand to a certain extent, and may also make the market appear substitutes, thus affecting the diammonium market.

Thirdly, the unstable price of raw sulfur will affect the trend of diammonium chloride to some extent. Take the sulfur price reduction this time for example. Although the final downward range is not too large, it does not fall below 1000 yuan, but the range is also about 200 yuan. Thus, the raw material cost of 64% ammonium bicarbonate has dropped by about 100 yuan. The periodic reduction is not too "personal injury", but some "bone breaking". The downward trend of raw materials will weaken the downstream confidence in diammonium bicarbonate, cause the periodic demand to slow down, and weaken the support for diammonium bicarbonate cost, It is difficult to maintain the price of diammonium, especially at the stage when the demand is not ideal.

To sum up, it is estimated that the ammonium bicarbonate market will still be greatly affected by the policy level next year, mainly to see how much capacity can be released from the mouth and the possibility of high price operation. However, based on the policy intervention, the factory pricing should not be too surprising; The variable of cost comes from sulfur, but international energy is also gradually returning to rationality, and the price may not be able to rise sharply.