The end of the New Year's holiday indicates that the fertilizer market has officially started in 2023. In 2022, the rising trend of raw material market will be the main trend, and the price of compound fertilizer will remain high for a long time. However, the purchase and sales activities will be "active in the first half of the year and sluggish in the second half of the year", and the market sentiment will fluctuate. Even if the price rise accounts for a large proportion, the stalemate will be unavoidable. Especially, the market changes in autumn and winter leave a little suspense for the new year. At the beginning of the year, the overall fertilizer market was basically stable. Although the urea market fluctuated frequently, the domestic urea price rose again slightly in recent days, which boosted the confidence of the downstream market to a certain extent. So, what benefits will compound fertilizer face in the new year?

First of all, the raw material market may be difficult to rise and fall. In order to keep the compound fertilizer market stable, the stability of raw material prices is indispensable. Compared with other raw materials, the urea market is the least "stable" and the most suspensive. The urea price will rise and fall in 2022. Once the price reaches a certain height, the downstream resistance will occur immediately. After various factors, the urea market will gradually return to rationality; Monoammonium market often fluctuates obviously, and changes in raw material cost, supply and demand are particularly important, but the influence of policy regulation and other factors must be taken into account; The potash fertilizer market is "implicated" by the international market, the international price falls back, and the domestic potash fertilizer price will not be very high.

Secondly, downstream demand is slow but concentrated. In fact, in addition to the raw material market, the downstream demand will also affect the compound fertilizer market. Taking the winter storage market as an example, the cost of raw materials was negative. At the beginning, the price of compound fertilizer was low, and the price of compound fertilizer was rising but not falling. The dealers generally held the currency to wait and see. However, the middle price rebounded, but the long-term market was uncertain. Most dealers were still cautious. It was difficult to release a large amount of downstream demand in advance until the fertilizer season. Although the purchase and sales of compound fertilizer were stagnant due to the slow short-term demand, with the approaching fertilizer season, The concentrated release of terminal demand may play a role in boosting the market. Therefore, the lack of short-term demand may be an unexpected benefit.

Finally, the mood may change after the market becomes stable. In 2022, the price of chemical fertilizer will not only be high, but also fluctuate frequently. The change in the market of raw material fertilizer will drive the price of compound fertilizer to rise and fall. Once the price rises to a high level, most dealers will be cautious, and even the embarrassing situation of price rise in the off-season and price fall in the peak season will often occur. Compared with last year, the trend of fertilizer market in 2023 may gradually return to rationality, and it is difficult to form a "roller coaster" type of ups and downs. As a result, the terminal market sentiment will also change, grass-roots purchase and sales enthusiasm will increase, and the actual demand in each season will be better, driving the compound fertilizer market back to the "lively" scene.
To sum up, given that the cost of raw materials is still at a high level and the demand in spring has not yet been fully released, the market of compound fertilizer in the first quarter may be largely stable and slightly dynamic, but the market pressure may increase after the end of the spring market, especially in the transitional demand gap period in the first and second half of the year. In short, the market of compound fertilizer in the new year should be more cautious, after all, it is not so easy to raise prices.