Even if the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the domestic urea price has not appeared the price of a price drop, the overall urea price is running at a high level at the beginning of the week, the local 10-30 yuan/ton down, as of today, the local small rebound, the supporting factor is that the downstream market inventory is not high and the amount of inquiries slightly increased, at the same time, urea enterprises also have a certain amount of advance order support. From the recent performance of the upstream and downstream markets, upstream urea production enterprises supply is sufficient, but the downstream inventory is not much, urea prices are high and difficult to have a reason. However, the focus of urea production enterprises will be placed on the advance of orders during the Spring Festival, coupled with the increase of late transportation pressure, urea prices inevitably have the risk of falling.

Now around the urea quotation after a small rise is still in 2600-2700 yuan/ton level consolidation, such as Shanxi urea mainstream factory quote in 2650-2690 yuan/ton or so, Shandong urea mainstream factory quote in 2670-2750 yuan/ton or so, Linyi compound fertilizer plant on urea received a small backward stable at 2710 yuan/ton; The price of the sales link in the basic market also fluctuates, but the inventory is low and the price is also running at a high level. For example, the local wholesale price in Jiangsu and Anhui is about 2730-2800 yuan/ton, and the local wholesale price in Jiangxi is about 2900 yuan/ton. However, recently, the wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream is increasing, and the transaction of new orders is also decreasing, so the goods are under relative pressure. Subsequent supply and demand dictate the extent of the price adjustment.

On the one hand, the supply of urea is sufficient, in addition to Sichuan, Chongqing and Inner Mongolia due to the limited supply of natural gas, gas urea enterprises production or production reduction, the production load of the rest of the coal head enterprises is generally not low, and during the Spring Festival no parking plan, supply is not reduced expectations, according to the statistics of the net urea daily total of about 146,300 tons, in addition recently individual gas urea enterprises have production plans; In addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival, in order to ensure the low inventory of liquid ammonia and avoid the shipment pressure during the Spring Festival, liquid ammonia is falling recently, and the decline is gradually increasing. Under the premise of not stopping, enterprises should tilt the production center to urea in the later stage, so the supply of urea has an increasing trend.

On the other hand, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the demand for new orders of urea is decreasing. Large and medium-sized traders take the initiative to reduce the procurement of urea on demand, and some manufacturers think the current urea price is high, long-term expectations are bearish, and the demand is light, so the lack of centralized single procurement support; The urea reserve of the basic market is not much, but before and after the Spring Festival, the basic wait-and-see is mainly, and there is no intention to prepare fertilizer; Industrial aspects of plywood factory construction has decreased, the purchase of urea in the decrease, compound fertilizer enterprise overall construction of about 40%, recently some small factories have parking expectations, coupled with the Spring Festival before the overall purchase of raw material fertilizer will slow down, stock demand is reduced, compound fertilizer factory has inventory of raw urea, new single take goods on demand; Finally, the export of urea is tepid. Whether the export law inspection policy will continue to be implemented after the end of April is still uncertain, and the short-term boost to the domestic market is limited.

In addition, the cost of urea enterprises is still supported, and the trend of ammonium chloride of small nitrogen fertilizer also has an impact on urea. Compared with urea, the price of ammonium chloride still has the advantage of low price. Some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase ammonium chloride instead of some urea, so the demand of urea is affected to a certain extent.

In general, before the Spring Festival urea enterprises have a certain order support, so the short-term price will inevitably have a small push up, but the market supply is sufficient, and the new single demand in the reduction, supply pressure is also gradually, and facing the transportation pressure, is expected before and after the Spring Festival the overall market stability in the consolidation of urea.