Recently urea in the downstream of the new single supplement to follow up the support, the price appeared a small range of exploration, up to now after stabilizing, the price of the market sales link is also rising, urea this wave of small rise to the original price on the high ammonium chloride market to provide support. At present, the ammonium chloride production enterprises are waiting for sufficient orders, and the orders during the Spring Festival are full, generally to early February or near the end of February, has basically stopped, although the overall demand of the new single has been reduced, but under the support of the waiting order, the price of ammonium chloride will continue to run at a high level, if the urea price is not significantly lower, after the Spring Festival, the market of ammonium chloride is still in a good trend.

On the one hand, the supply of urea is sufficient, and there is a rebound trend in the later period. At present, the total daily output of about 140,000 tons is slightly higher. At present, except for the production reduction or production suspension of gas urea enterprises, the production load of other plants is at a high level. Recently, liquid ammonia enterprises are reducing their inventory at the same time. During the Spring Festival holiday, urea production should be appropriate, and the supply of urea will increase. On the other hand, in anticipation of increased transportation pressure, the inventory of urea enterprises will also increase, so the price may be under appropriate downward pressure; Moreover urea demand is occasionally supported, but the overall lukewarm, lack of large single and centralized procurement support, agricultural dealers before the Spring Festival only a small amount of supplement, large and medium-sized traders on urea to take goods on demand, later purchase volume will reduce, in addition to urea export legal inspection, international urea prices have fallen, limited support for domestic urea market. In general, urea supply and demand, in the short term positive slightly dominant, local prices slightly up, but there is still room to fall in the long term, but there is no significant adjustment of expectations.

Secondly, since the price of urea is high and difficult to fall, there is little concern about ammonium chloride market, that is, ammonium chloride has advantages in price. Compared with urea, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have higher enthusiasm for ammonium chloride procurement. In addition to the impact of urea, the supply, demand and near-term transportation of ammonium chloride are critical.

At present, there are sufficient orders waiting to be issued by ammonium chloride enterprises, the price is stable at the high level and slightly increased at the low level. The main factory quotation of dry ammonium is about 1100-1300 yuan/ton, the price of Bayuquan port in Northeast region is about 1350 yuan/ton, and the price of dry ammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou region is about 1450 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the operation of ammonium chloride plants is high, and under the support of high prices, the production enthusiasm of the plants is very high. During the Spring Festival, there is no plan to stop production. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the operating rate of the whole industry is about 85%, and the supply of goods is sufficient, but the production enterprises have no inventory pressure; In the downstream aspect, the inventory of ammonium chloride, the raw material of compound fertilizer plant, is relatively limited, but some large and medium-sized traders have some reserve supplies, and the market demand is relatively optimistic. On the other hand, the quantity of ammonium chloride enterprises is sufficient and the supporting price remains high. However, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival, the demand of new orders of ammonium chloride has decreased. First, the operation of some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, while the procurement of large factories will be carried out according to demand. Third, the export volume of ammonium chloride is relatively limited, which has limited impact on the domestic market; Later transportation will also appear short-term pressure, before and after the Spring Festival ammonium chloride enterprise inventory will increase.

In summary, urea price no significant adjustment expected, the overall market high shock; Small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride market trend to run, by the support of orders to be issued, the price will be stable before the Spring Festival.