In early April, the spring compound fertilizer market entered its final sprint stage. As expected, although the overall price of compound fertilizers remains high, downstream demand is lukewarm. Most compound fertilizer factories still stated that they are executing pre order orders, and new orders after the price increase are relatively average. The compound fertilizer market has once again experienced an awkward situation of sluggish peak season. With the significant increase in raw material costs, compound fertilizer companies have had to adjust their quotations accordingly. Unexpectedly, the urea market has recently turned weak, and whether compound fertilizer prices can "stand alone" has once again become a focus of attention.

In fact, the spring urea market is significantly better than expected, and after multiple rounds of ups and downs, urea prices are still at a relatively high level. Recently, the negative impact on the demand side has intensified, and urea prices have been forced to decline under pressure. The consecutive days of price reductions have intensified market pessimism, but the extent of the decline is temporarily limited. The urea market has released a downward signal, and the future market situation of compound fertilizers has become more subtle. Considering the small changes in raw material costs at this stage, coupled with the overlapping demand in spring and summer, compound fertilizer companies may choose to stabilize prices and wait and see.

Firstly, the raw material market is indeed not as strong as before. The urea market is weak, and other raw material prices are unlikely to rise again. The ammonium chloride market remains relatively stable, with companies generally having pending orders to execute, and the situation of new orders is not ideal; The ammonium market remains stable, with weak demand and insufficient downstream purchasing intentions, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations in the future; The price of potassium chloride has slightly fallen, and the quotation is not obvious at the moment, but the trend can be basically determined; Therefore, if the raw material market cannot maintain its current state or even experiences a widespread decline in prices, it will be fatal for the summer compound fertilizer market, which is the main reason for the current stalemate.

Secondly, downstream demand is not strong and the lag is exacerbated. Since the launch of spring purchasing and sales, the atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market has not been high. Buying up does not buy down. After the price increase of compound fertilizer, upstream factories have indicated that the delivery speed of early orders has accelerated. The inventory established by distributors is mainly low-priced sources, and the wholesale and retail prices at the end are both low, resulting in the delay of high priced sources. Based on the frequent changes in the fertilizer market in recent years, the traditional idea of downstream fertilizer preparation has undergone a transformation, especially among grassroots farmers who are unwilling to make purchases before the fertilizer season. Therefore, not only is the demand in the spring market lagging behind, but the summer market is likely to be the same.

Finally, can the market transition perfectly between spring and summer? The local spring market is nearing its end, and there is no possibility of significant fluctuations in the compound fertilizer market. It is just waiting for the emergence of downstream replenishment demand. Once the replenishment demand lags behind, the compound fertilizer prices in the closing stage may be very chaotic; Or the demand for replenishment may fall far short of expectations, which may not have a boosting effect on the summer fertilizer market. At present, compound fertilizer enterprises are mostly waiting for the completion of spring markets in some regions such as Northeast and Northwest China, and may adjust summer policies and prices based on their specific situations.

Overall, the narrow fluctuations in urea prices are not enough to immediately cause a change in the compound fertilizer market. Perhaps what downstream needs more is for prices to remain relatively stable.